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Saturday July 12, 2008

Stephen Harper - a special kind of obfuscator

Canada's Harper Says Biofuels Not Main Cause of Food Inflation (Bloomberg)
While acknowledging biofuels are one of the factors behind higher food prices, Harper said singling them out doesn't explain why rice has posted the "most rapid escalation'' in price. Rice isn't a major source for biofuels, Harper said.
Oh, yeah? Either our PM is, like, an airhead, or else he is extremely high-mach*, the only other possible explanation being that he was working from a US disinfo script. Anyway you look at it, he's obfuscating, and had he been an English major he would have understood that's something he ought to eschew if he wants to be able to stop complaining that Canadians just don't understand.

Simply put: the price of rice went up because of panic buying and hoarding due to predictions of a coming shortage.
There is no immediate shortage in rice.

Fuel prices have increased for the same reason - the threat of impending, not actual shortage. Investors are having a field day, and governments are raking in dollars from the taxes hidden in the price. (See The Tax Poem to learn just how taxed we really are. It ain't just the GST from which Harper has tried to buy votes by shaving off a pittance.)

When the real shortage in grains takes hold it will be largely because agriculture for biofuels is more profitable than food production.

 It's all very humanitarian, since it will reduce the number of people living in poverty - once they've starved to death, that is. Harper Sahib at the G8 wasn't kidding when he pronounced imperiously:  “The developing world is up against some simple mathematics, and we've simply got to make that point to them.”

Oh, they've got the point alright, and Harper has proved that he can "eschew obfuscation" when he's not trying to be misunderstood.

Harper is supposedly an economist, but he seems to be outside the profession on this topic. From the Independent's business section (all underlining mine):
Worldwide, economists are worried that the diversion of agricultural land and certain crops to biofuel production is cutting into grain and cereal production for human consumption. The prices of rice and wheat are linked.
The west and its partners in crime are getting out of the rice production business, for one ostensible reason or another. From the Financial Post:
Production is predicted to decline in Australia, with a report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics forecasting the 2008 rice crop to decline by almost 90% due to water shortages. Meanwhile, production in the United States, theworld's 4th largest rice exporter, is expected to decline due to mounting competition for more profitable crops, the FAO said.
And naturally this goes ditto for the 51st state. Are those "more profitable crops" biofuels?  It seem likely considering that the bus shelters in Ottawa have their windows plastered over with large posters praising Harper for promoting the production of biofuels.

The International Rice Research Institute presents some possible factors, and here are two quite damning ones:
An important factor accounting for the slowdown in yield growth is the reduced public investment in agricultural research and development (R&D). In particular, international donors have not provided sufficient support for agricultural R&D that is directly related to increasing crop productivity. Many governments have been unable to compensate for this by allocating more of their own resources.

...

This income-driven growth in demand has pushed up the price of cereals in general. In many areas with high population density, highly productive rice land has been lost to housing and industrial development, or to growing vegetables and other cash crops. (biofuels?)
In plain words, there's little point in spending money on agricultual development when real estate in "developing" countries is being bought for a song by international biz to put up huge factories and massive factory farms, hiring dirt cheap labour to produce not for the local economy but for export to countries with the money to buy.

And that's where the majorest of biofuel production will take place, where we can't see it and where it can be obfuscated about.

The last word goes to David Wilkes, senior vice-president of the Canadian Council of Grocery Distributors, because if anybody should know, he should:
The rice situation should also be looked at in the context of the apparent structural shifts going on in the global food market ... He listed some factors:

    * Changing consumption patterns;
    * Food being converted into ethanol;
    * Agricultural land being taken out of production.
You ask why "single out" biofuels, Mr. Harper?  Because it may not be the only factor, but it may well turn out to be the biggest and most devastating.

* High Machs constitute a distinct type: charming, confident and glib, but also arrogant, calculating and cynical, prone to manipulate and exploit. (Salon personality test)

Related: Machiavelli: monster or mastermind?

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